Article No. 12
27/July/2019
The fundamental reason for tension between Israel and
Iran is a theological one, rather than any kind of geopolitics or economics. It
is between the theology of Judea-Christian and Shia-Islamic (Iranian Islam).
Iran is basically a Shia dominated country and Saudi Arabia is a Sunni dominant
country. In Islam, mainly two branches i.e. Shia and Sunni. Shia holds that the
Islamic prophet Muhammad designated Ali ibn Abi Talib as his successor and the
Imam (leader) after him, most notably at the event of Ghadir Khumm, but was
prevented from the caliphate as a result of the incident of Saqifah. This view
primarily contrasts with that of Sunni Islam, whose adherents believe that
Muhammad did not appoint a successor and consider Abu Bakr, who they claim was
appointed caliph by a small group of Muslims at Saqifah, to be the first
rightful caliph after the Prophet.
Here, it can clearly understand that two branches of
Islam fighting each other based on theological differences of the successor of
Muhammad. Thus, the world’s prominent countries divided basically into these
three theological factions (Judea-Christian, Sunni Islam and Shia Islam).
Practically and presently, Sunni factions of Islam and it dominated Saudi
Arabia basically allied with Judea-Christian faction lead by the United States
of America and Israel. But Shia factions of Islam and it dominated Iran
basically allied with Communist countries like China and Russia. This is a
basic outline of all countries on this planet preparing to the final battle of
the world. India had a non-alignment policy since independence, but now it
seems that more allied with USA lead factions.
Background
Recent developments start from Trump administration's
decision to walk away from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),
known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal or Iran deal. It is an agreement on the
Iranian nuclear program reached in Vienna on July 14, 2015, between Iran, the
P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China,
France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States—plus Germany), and the European
Union. Under JCPOA, Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched
uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%, and reduce by about
two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years. For the next 15
years, Iran will only enrich uranium up to 3.67%. Iran also agreed not to build
any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time. Uranium-enrichment
activities will be limited to a single facility using first-generation
centrifuges for 10 years.
On July 14, 2015, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu warned the agreement was “a historic mistake.” Trump administration and Israel
administration want a deal with Iran must be agreed to free from nuclear weapon
ever in its future and never having an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic
missile). On May 8, 2018, the United States withdrew from the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action. From this onwards recent escalation of tension in
the Middle East or West Asia starts.
Geo-politics influenced by pressure groups
Geopolitics and international relations are heavily
influenced by lobbying groups and pressure groups. AIPAC (American Israel
Public Affairs Committee) and CUFI (Christians United for Israel) are most
prominent in this regards. AIPAC is a lobbying group that advocates pro-Israel
policies to the Congress and Executive Branch of the United States. Besides,
the organization has been called one of the most powerful lobbying groups in
the United States. CUFI is the largest pro-Israel organization in the United
States. “We stand with Israel because we believe in right over wrong, in good
over evil, in liberty over tyranny. We stand with Israel today, tomorrow, and
we always will.” -Mike Pence at the 2019 AIPAC Policy Conference. “President
Donald Trump's commitment to Israel is the strongest in history... Standing
with other countries like Israel that themselves stand for freedom – that’s
what America is all about” - Secretary Pompeo at CUFI 2019 Summit in
Washington, DC.
All these historical and contemporary development
indicates that geopolitics is not just about international political boundaries
or economic interests. AIPAC describes itself as a bipartisan organization, and
the bills it lobbies for in Congress are always jointly sponsored by both a
Democrat and Republican. The New York Times has described AIPAC as "a
major force in shaping United States policy in the Middle East". It is
something that deeply rooted in theological and historical rivalry and
scriptural prophesy fulfilment.
Scriptural Prophecy
Scriptural Prophecy says that at the end times Israel
will be attacked by the king of east and king of the north. It is in the book
of Daniel chapter 11. It is interpreted that king of the north will be Syria or
Turkey or Russia (Moscow is just northward of Israel), also king of the east
will be Iran or China. Present geopolitical development indicates that the
formation of an alliance between Iran, China and Russia, which includes kings
of both east and north.
Based on this pattern, the entire countries in the
world is virtually or really divided on support Israel or oppose Israel. This
polarization of political powers in the world eventually leads to the final
battle of this world. Virtually, polarization among countries exist all
countries now and in reality, many of the countries aligned with one or other
side.
Threat and Military Power
Anyone can threaten anyone in this world, but threat
always makes tension among affected both parties. Mostly, threats may not
materialize but cause to an escalation of different issues in involved parties.
It is true for tension among people, groups or even countries. However, the
tension between Israel and Iran is not a just threat between two nearby
countries, but both are tip of all countries of the world together in side by
side as well as rally behind them. It makes this situation distinguish from all
other military situations in historical battles.
As of 2019, the U.S. spends US$730.149 billion
annually to fund its armed forces and Overseas Contingency Operations. As of
2018, the U.S. constitutes roughly 36 percent of the world's military
expenditures. The U.S. Armed Forces have significant capabilities in both
defence and power projection due to its large budget, resulting in advanced and
powerful technologies which enables a widespread deployment of the force around
the world, including around 800 military bases outside the United States. The
U.S. Air Force is the world's largest air force, the U.S. Navy is the world's largest
navy by tonnage, and the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Marine Corps combined are the
world's second-largest air arm. The U.S. as of FY2019 has about 14,061 aircraft
in inventory.
The Israel Defense Forces are believed to have had an
operational nuclear weapons capability since 1967, possibly possessing between
80 and 400 nuclear weapons, with delivery systems forming a nuclear triad, of
plane launched-missiles, Jericho III intercontinental ballistic missiles and
submarine-launched cruise missiles. Iran's military is ranked as the 14th most
powerful armed forces in the world by Global Firepower's 2019 Military Strength
Ranking, losing its 2018 rank of 13th due to US sanctions placed on Iran in
August of 2018. If Iran is supported by Russia and China, the entire picture
will change.
What next?
Israel most probably not going to allow Iran to
develop a nuclear weapon. It may be dealt with Limited Military Strike or any
kind of surgical strike coordinated by intelligence agencies with specially
trained commandos. Otherwise, present escalation of tension leads to the last
battle of the world. The immediate cause of World War I in 1914 that made the
aforementioned items come into play (alliances, imperialism, militarism,
nationalism) was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of
Austria-Hungary. The immediate cause of the outbreak of WWII in Europe in 1939
was the German invasion of Poland. Similarly, this tension may lead to WWIII.
But it is sure that after WWIII there will be no WW IV. Because WWIII will be
the end of all WW.
By,
Nithin A F
Doing Post Graduation in Psychology
Thiruvanathapuram, Kerala.
Email : nithinaf@gmail.com
www.NithinAF.blogspot.com
27/July/2019
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